UNJLC Pakistan Earthquake
BULLETIN No. 24
Period, Tuesday December 6^th – Thursday, December 8^th 2005

Summary and Highlights                              Days since October 8th Earthquake: 61

• Road conditions, particularly away from the main route of the Karakoram Highway, are deteriorating with the onset of winter rains.
• Helicopter capacity is sufficient for current needs but is falling as assisting foreign militaries gradually withdraw.
• Air operators may consider the utility of the Saidu Mingora airfield, in the Swat Valley, as an alternative or complementary air facility, particularly to serve towns in the north of the affected area.

Contents

1. Security
2. Road Updates: Jhelum and Lepa Valleys
3. Field Update: Batagram
4. Aviation Update: Analysis of Capacity
5. Air Distances: Major Airfields to Key Towns

1. Security

During a WFP food distribution at a camp in Muzaffarabad on December 8th, twelve bags of food were reported stolen at gunpoint. No injury to the distribution team or damage to agency property was reported but the incident highlights the security risks that agencies face. All parties are reminded to submit incident reports involving thefts or harassment to the local authorities and to inform the relief community through cluster meetings so that appropriate measures and representations may be made.

2. Road Updates: Jhelum and Lepa Valleys

The following updates cover the Jhelum and Lepa Valleys and provide an overview of the operational status and risks of the roads passing through them.

Lepa Valley-Muzaffarabad to Lepa: upon entering the Lepa Valley (which branches off the Jhelum Valley), the road narrows and ascends steeply. Between 61km to 64km from Muzaffarabad the road is extremely dangerous with landslides, overhanging rocks, and steep drop-offs. The main town is Reshia; immediately after this is another extremely dangerous area. The road continues to climb steeply by switchbacks to a peak altitude of 9546' with snow first encountered at 7100'. Snow depth at the peak is about 18" but has been recently ploughed by the military.

The descent to Lepa is again steep with multiple switchbacks and icing over in the areas. Melting ice mixing with road dirt may cause particular problems for heavy trucks. Overall trip time for the 90km from Muzaffarabad to Lepa is currently about three hours. Local sources advise that the road to Lepa is generally inaccessible from January (or first heavy snowfall) to late March.

Jhelhum Valley- Muzaffarabad to Chakothi: The road is mostly paved with some pockets of dirt and gravel normally around curves and near bridges. The road is generally secure. The following areas located are considered risky due to possible landslides or cliffs and poor road conditions.

3. Field Update: Batagram

Travel restrictions for UN agencies on the road to Banna remain in place on the advice of UN DSS. This is mainly due to the risk of falling debris and compounded by the reluctance of many local commercial operators to use the road. See Bulletin 18, item 1. The lower road from Besham to Banna in the Allai Valley is not recommended as an alternative to the Thakot to Banna road. The bridge at Dirkand is in a poor state of repair; the road is extremely narrow in places and may well be cut off again due to winter weather conditions.

WFP have increased the number of RubbHalls at Chatterplain. Storage capacity now stands at 2020 tonnes. The hub itself can handle an Mi-26 and multiple Mi-8's. The possibility of establishing a fuel farm at the location is also being investigated.

In relation to the ongoing security issues relating to the use of escorts in the Batagram District (Bulletin 23, item 1), several NGOs have indicated that they will discontinue operations in this area if they are required to travel with an armed police escort.

4. Weather Update

The Pakistan Meteorological office has issued an advisory that the coming winter is likely to be harsher than usual in the earthquake affected areas, particularly those situated at over 8,000' above sea level. The next weather system is expected in about a week's time and is likely to bring more rains. Most of the mountainous areas in the Neelam and Kaghan Valleys may have the road access severely curtailed within about two weeks. Snowfall is expected to be heavier than normal in both frequency and quantity. Night temperatures in January will fall as low as -20C.

5. Aviation Update: Helicopter Status

The graphs (top right of this page) summarise the number, cargo capacity and tasking authority of the helicopter assets currently deployed to support the relief effort. The first graph illustrates the relationship between the cargo carrying capacity and number of helicopters deployed. Despite having fallen from the peak in terms of both airframe numbers and cargo capacity on November 21st, the overall cargo capacity is sufficient for current requirements.

The second graph illustrates how the changing composition of the helicopter assets has affected the percentage of assets tasked by the different stakeholders. The most noticeable change can be seen in the departure of foreign military assets, whilst the UNHAS and other International Organisations/NGOs has remained static.

6. Air Distances: Major Airfields - Key Towns

The table below provides distances between major fixed wing and helicopter-capable airfields and to various key locations in or serving the affected area.

Air operators may note that the airfield at Saidu Mingora (also known as Saidu Sharif), in the Sawt Valley, to the west of the affected area, is closer to or as close to several key towns (primarily Batagram, Besham, Banna and Balakot) as other key airfields (generally Islamabad/ Chaklala, Muzaffarabad and Abbottabad) used for relief flights.

As importantly, Saidu Mingora has a longer and wider runway than Muzaffarabad (6001' by 151' vs. 2999' by 75' for Muzaffarabad, elevation 3121' vs. 2691') and is sufficiently far way from both Islamabad and Muzaffarabad that it may not be affected by the same weather systems. However, the road to Saidu Mingora from the nearest main city of Peshawar may be cut by snow in winter.