The supply of domestically-refined fuels has partially recovered since major sabotage to Kirkuk-Baiji pipelines in late August drastically reduced production by limiting crude feed to the Baiji and Daura refineries. Iraqi and Coalition engineers have been particularly successful in implementing workarounds to Baiji - the country's largest – although less so with Daura. With completion of repairs not expected before the end of this month, overall refinery production is not expected to recover to the pre-sabotage levels until October.

Despite reduced supplies from refineries, an unprecedented level of gasoline imports has both ensured adequate current supplies and appears to have allowed the re-establishment of buffer stocks. In fact, gasoline supplies are so abundant that the black market for it has all but disappeared, as have queues at petrol stations. This has had a significant calming effect on the level of frustration within the urban populace.

Diesel supplies have also improved significantly, in part because production was generally less affected by the Kirkuk-Baiji pipeline sabotage and in part because long-awaited diesel imports have commenced. Supplies do not yet meet demand and there are still shortages and an active black market but availability is probably better than at any time in the past two months. This has probably also been assisted by effective counter-smuggling operations and new production from small regional refineries.

At the same time, kerosene shortages are becoming more evident, together with a substantial increase in the black market price. Used as a heating fuel, September and October kerosene consumption is generally double that of mid-summer and increases a further threefold by December. With Iraq's refineries unable to match winter seasonal demand with winter production, substantial stockpiling is necessary during the summer and autumn. The Ministry of Oil usually builds up reserves of 400 million litres by mid-November. This has not occurred to the extent required because of the limited performance of the refineries in the five months post-conflict and the high demand for diesel production since early July. Unless a great deal more refining capacity is devoted to kerosene – as may be possible given that diesel imports have commenced – and unless kerosene imports are commenced, there may be severe shortages of kerosene in winter, especially in the north.